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James Conner

James Conner Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-109/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The leading projections forecast James Conner to notch 3.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.

James Conner has been a key part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 11.1% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.

When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals grades out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

James Conner grades out as one of the leading pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 2.9 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cardinals have run the 10th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.

Arizona's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and running stats too low) considering playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

The 49ers linebackers rank as the best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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