James Conner Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 22, 2024 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.
James Conner has been used more as a potential target this year (51.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (41.5%).
The predictive model expects James Conner to accrue 4.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
James Conner has totaled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (25.0) this year than he did last year (13.0).
James Conner's 89.2% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a material boost in his pass-catching ability over last year's 86.0% mark.

Favors Under

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 52.3% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to see just 128.1 plays on offense called: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Panthers, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.6 per game) this year.

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