Jameis Winston TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jameis Winston

NFL · Player Props

Jameis Winston

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 4, 2024 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jameis Winston TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 62.6% of their plays: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Browns to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.1% red zone pass rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 135.4 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
The Browns have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.9 plays per game.
In this week's contest, Jameis Winston is predicted by the projections to average the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.8.

Favors Under

The Browns offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Chargers defense has allowed the 4th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 0.86 per game this year.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's collection of CBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the NFL.

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