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Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jameis Winston TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+122/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Browns to pass on 79.0% of their opportunities: the greatest clip among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to be the 4th-most pass-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.0% red zone pass rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 148.3 plays on offense run: the highest number on the slate this week.

The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a massive 62.8 per game on average).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) generally mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.

As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Browns ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's group of LBs has been very good this year, profiling as the 8th-best in football.

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