Jameis Winston TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jameis Winston

NFL · Player Props

Jameis Winston

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 3, 2024 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Jameis Winston TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Browns to pass on 64.1% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.3 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.4 plays per game.

Favors Under

The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
This year, the fierce Broncos defense has conceded a meager 1.08 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 8th-best rate in the league.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Denver's CB corps has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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