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Ja'Marr Chase

Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-132/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -132.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (65.0% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Bengals.
  • Ja'Marr Chase has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 27.5% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
  • Ja'Marr Chase has notched many more air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (90.0 per game).
  • Ja'Marr Chase's 76.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 64.7.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are predicted by the projection model to call just 61.2 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bengals ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Ja'Marr Chase's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 74.8% to 67.5%.

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