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Ja'Marr Chase

Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-106/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -119.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 64.9% of their plays: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.2% red zone pass rate.
  • Ja'Marr Chase has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 29.0% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
  • Ja'Marr Chase has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (111.0 per game) than he did last season (90.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are expected by the projection model to call only 63.8 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
  • Ja'Marr Chase's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 74.8% to 67.5%.
  • This year, the fierce Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered a feeble 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-smallest rate in football.

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