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Ja'Marr Chase

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-111/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -141 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • In this week's game, Ja'Marr Chase is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 10.5 targets.
  • Ja'Marr Chase's 33.1% Target% this season illustrates an impressive progression in his pass game utilization over last season's 27.9% mark.
  • With an exceptional 7.3 adjusted receptions per game (100th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase rates among the top WRs in the league in the NFL.
  • This year, the weak Dolphins pass defense has been torched for a staggering 66.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are predicted by the projection model to call just 61.2 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bengals ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Ja'Marr Chase's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 74.8% to 67.5%.

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