Ja'Marr Chase Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:15 AM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 100.0% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Ja'Marr Chase to accrue 8.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
Ja'Marr Chase has been among the best WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.3 receptions per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.1%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (64.1%).
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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