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Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 82.5 (-145/+110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 86.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 82.5 @ +110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may drop.The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (34.2 per game) since the start of last season.Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 97.6% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.The predictive model expects Ja'Marr Chase to total 10.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Bengals offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.Ja'Marr Chase ranks as one of the bottom WRs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 1st percentile.As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's unit has been fantastic since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the NFL.
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