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Ja'Marr Chase

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 87.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 84.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 87.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 67.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week.
  • In this week's contest, Ja'Marr Chase is predicted by the predictive model to find himself in the 99th percentile among wideouts with 11.7 targets.
  • Ja'Marr Chase has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack this year (33.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (27.9%).
  • After accruing 90.0 air yards per game last season, Ja'Marr Chase has undergone big improvement this season, currently averaging 106.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
  • The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Ja'Marr Chase has posted many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (86.0) this season than he did last season (98.0).
  • Ja'Marr Chase's 68.4% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a significant decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 74.8% figure.

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