Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-104/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +103 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
Ja'Marr Chase has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 29.3% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Ja'Marr Chase's 63.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 91st percentile for wideouts.
Ja'Marr Chase's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 66.9% to 72.5%.
Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the 99th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.75 per game.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Ja'Marr Chase has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (99.0 per game) than he did last season (105.0 per game).
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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