Jamal Agnew Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Jamal Agnew

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamal Agnew Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jamal Agnew to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack this week (11.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.9% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Jamal Agnew's receiving efficiency has improved this season, compiling 10.02 yards-per-target vs a mere 7.26 rate last season.

Favors Under

Jamal Agnew's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 69.0% to 62.8%.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 133.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) versus wideouts this year (62.9%).
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus WRs this year, yielding 7.76 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.