Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 8, 2024 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 4th-most run-focused team in football (44.7% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Saints.
The leading projections forecast Jamaal Williams to be a much bigger part of his offense's ground game in this week's game (18.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.3% in games he has played).
Jamaal Williams's 4.0 adjusted yards per carry this year illustrates a remarkable growth in his running prowess over last year's 2.9 figure.

Favors Under

The Saints are a giant 8-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Chiefs defense boasts the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 3.72 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Kansas City's group of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 5th-best in football.

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