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Jamaal Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+175/-225).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +190 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +175.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Saints to run the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Saints have run the 3rd-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Jamaal Williams is positioned as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among running backs, completing an impressive 94.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 79th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 5-point advantage, the Saints are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Panthers, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.9 per game) last year.As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints ranks as the 5th-worst in football last year.The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (75%) versus running backs last year (75.0%).When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Carolina's unit has been great last year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.
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