Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a staggering 62.1 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Jamaal Williams's 88.8% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a meaningful boost in his receiving talent over last year's 74.5% rate.
This year, the shaky New York Giants pass defense has given up a colossal 87.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 2nd-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a running game script for the Saints, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Jamaal Williams grades out as one of the worst RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a lowly 4.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 15th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jamaal Williams's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 3.23 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 4.54 figure last season.
The New York Giants defense has allowed the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 25.0) to running backs this year.

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