Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-114/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
Jamaal Williams has garnered a whopping 1.7% of his team's air yards this year: 79th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
Jamaal Williams has been among the weakest RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 5.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 10th percentile.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (75.3%).
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against running backs since the start of last season, yielding 5.26 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 7.08 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in the league.

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