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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Jalen Tolbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+355/-390).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +395 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +355.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cowboys this year (a staggering 61.0 per game on average).
  • The model projects Jalen Tolbert to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the end zone in this game (18.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.5% in games he has played).
  • When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Carolina's DE corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies a running game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 3 points.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see only 126.5 total plays run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Jalen Tolbert has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (53.0 per game).
  • Jalen Tolbert's 24.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 32.6.

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