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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Jalen Tolbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2200/-3000).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +10000 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +2200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.2% red zone pass rate.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 58.8 plays per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Jalen Tolbert has totaled far fewer air yards this season (29.0 per game) than he did last season (53.0 per game).
  • Jalen Tolbert's 17.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 32.6.
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Cowboys grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
  • Jalen Tolbert's 55.1% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a material reduction in his receiving skills over last year's 66.7% mark.
  • This year, the imposing Detroit Lions defense has yielded a mere 66.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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