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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Jalen Tolbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1000/-2900).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +3500 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cowboys to pass on 62.8% of their plays: the 4th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.
  • The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cowboys this year (a colossal 58.8 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cowboys are projected by the model to run just 61.5 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • After averaging 53.0 air yards per game last year, Jalen Tolbert has been a disappointment this year, now pacing 32.0 per game.
  • Jalen Tolbert's 18.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 32.6.
  • The Cowboys offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • Jalen Tolbert's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 66.7% to 55.6%.

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