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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Jalen Tolbert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2000/-2900).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1950 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2900.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.1 per game on average).
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
  • This year, the shaky Raiders pass defense has yielded a monstrous 69.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have just 125.6 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
  • After accruing 53.0 air yards per game last year, Jalen Tolbert has seen a big decline this year, now pacing 33.0 per game.
  • Jalen Tolbert's 19.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 32.6.

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