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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Jalen Tolbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-244/+190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -244 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +190.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 5th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • The 9th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a staggering 59.0 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 2nd-worst LB corps in the league this year in defending receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Jalen Tolbert's 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 32.6.
  • When it comes to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Cowboys profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Jalen Tolbert's receiving talent has worsened this season, compiling just 1.9 adjusted catches compared to 2.9 last season.
  • Jalen Tolbert's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 66.7% to 56.2%.

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