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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

Jalen Tolbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+103/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -205 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 61.2% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest rate among all teams this week.

The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a staggering 63.5 per game on average).

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.

The model projects Jalen Tolbert to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game in this game (16.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (11.0% in games he has played).

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, New York's unit has been awful this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to run the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Jets, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.2 per game) this year.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.

Jalen Tolbert's 57.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a meaningful decline in his pass-catching skills over last year's 66.7% rate.

More Jalen Tolbert Player Props

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