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Jalen Tolbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-128).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -128.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.The New York Giants pass defense has been torched for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.9%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (68.9%).As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New York's unit has been terrible since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this game, indicating more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 28.3 per game) since the start of last season.The projections expect Jalen Tolbert to be a less important option in his team's passing attack in this game (6.4% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.4% in games he has played).The Dallas Cowboys O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
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