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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

Jalen Tolbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

At the moment, the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Cowboys.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Dallas's passing stats last year may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats too low) as a result of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense last year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect Jalen Tolbert to be a less important option in his team's passing game in this game (6.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (12.7% in games he has played).

The Cowboys O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.

Last year, the stout Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered a feeble 61.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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