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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers

Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -167.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Cowboys, who are -6.5-point underdogs.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to pass on 64.5% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The 2nd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Dallas Cowboys since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.4 per game on average).

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 125.3 plays on offense run: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Jalen Tolbert's 21.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 32.6.

The Cowboys offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Jalen Tolbert's 55.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a material decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 66.7% figure.

Jalen Tolbert's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, averaging a mere 3.41 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.31 figure last season.

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