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Jalen Tolbert

Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys

Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.3 plays per game.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has shown poor efficiency vs. wideouts since the start of last season, allowing 9.06 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Chicago's unit has been very bad since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.

While Jalen Tolbert has accounted for 12.0% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Dallas's passing attack in this week's contest at 7.0%.

In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

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