Jalen Reagor Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jalen Reagor

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Reagor

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Reagor Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1280/-7000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Jalen Reagor has put up far fewer air yards this year (2.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Jalen Reagor's 5.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 28.2.
Jalen Reagor has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 59.6% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 20th percentile among wide receivers
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. wideouts this year (62.7%).

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