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Jalen Nailor

Jalen Nailor Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Jalen Nailor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
  • Jalen Nailor's 28.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 20.8.
  • The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been torched for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.2%) versus wide receivers this year (67.2%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line suggests a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 6.5 points.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Vikings to pass on 54.3% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have just 122.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
  • The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 51.0 per game on average).
  • Jalen Nailor's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 67.0% to 57.3%.

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