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Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Jalen Hurts Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-138/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -138.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

Jalen Hurts's 77.2% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a material improvement in his throwing accuracy over last year's 68.3% rate.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Rams run defense has conceded a meager 0.68 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.5% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

The projections expect Jalen Hurts to throw 29.9 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 4th-fewest out of all QBs.

While Jalen Hurts has earned 24.6% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Philadelphia's running game near the goal line in this week's game at 42.0%.

With a terrific ratio of 0.29 TDs on the ground per game (88th percentile), Jalen Hurts rates among the top running QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.

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