Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 19, 2025

Updated Jan 12, 2026 3:37 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles will be forced to start backup quarterback Tanner McKee in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see only 127.6 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (34.1 per game) this year.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year.
The 49ers safeties grade out as the 5th-worst safety corps in football this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 51.4% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Eagles to be the least pass-focused team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 47.6% red zone pass rate.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

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