Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 28, 2025 8:42 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
Jalen Hurts has been one of the top TD passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 1.50 per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 52.5% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to be the least pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 46.5% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
The predictive model expects Jalen Hurts to attempt 30.5 passes in this contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest among all QBs.

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