Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 20, 2025 9:52 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-109/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +107 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
This year, the deficient Commanders defense has been torched for a massive 73.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.
This year, the porous Commanders defense has been torched for a massive 2.00 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-largest rate in the league.
The Commanders safeties project as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

A running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the least pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (46.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Philadelphia Eagles.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.32 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Jalen Hurts to attempt 31.2 passes this week, on average: the 5th-fewest out of all QBs.

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