Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 23, 2024 12:02 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Eagles are projected by the projections to run 65.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
The 3rd-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a massive 60.6 per game on average).
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Eagles are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.
The model projects the Eagles to be the 8th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the least pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (44.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Eagles.
Since the start of last season, the stout Saints defense has yielded a measly 63.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Saints defense has surrendered the 9th-fewest touchdowns through the air in football: 1.21 per game since the start of last season.

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