Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+106/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are expected by our trusted projection set to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 67.2 plays per game.
In throwing a colossal 37.7 pass attempts per game this year, Jalen Hurts rates among the top QBs in the NFL (84th percentile) by this measure.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Eagles profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
This year, the weak Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a monstrous 74.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 10th-worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Eagles are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the least pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (49.6% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Philadelphia Eagles.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Miami's group of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in football.

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