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Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 189.5 (-113/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 193.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 189.5 @ -111.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

Jalen Hurts's 77.2% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a material improvement in his throwing accuracy over last year's 68.3% rate.

Since the start of last season, the poor Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing squads: a monstrous 4.88 YAC.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.5% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

The projections expect Jalen Hurts to throw 29.9 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 4th-fewest out of all QBs.

Jalen Hurts's passing effectiveness has diminished this year, compiling a measly 5.60 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.78 mark last year.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in football against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).

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