Jalen Hurts Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Passing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2025

Updated Sep 5, 2025 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 212.5 (-106/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 212.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 212.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive blueprint to lean 3.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected by the predictive model to call 65.8 total plays in this contest: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Eagles last year (a whopping 60.1 per game on average).
With an exceptional 68.3% Adjusted Completion% (82nd percentile) last year, Jalen Hurts ranks among the most accurate quarterbacks in football.
With an impressive 7.78 adjusted yards-per-target (79th percentile) last year, Jalen Hurts places among the best per-play quarterbacks in football.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Eagles, who are heavily favored by 7.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 49.5% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects Jalen Hurts to throw 30.1 passes in this game, on balance: the 3rd-fewest among all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense last year: 4th-fewest in football.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 7th-worst in the league last year.

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