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Jalen Guyton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-128/+100).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.Jalen Guyton has been less involved as a potential target this season (79.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (13.8%).This year, the poor Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded a whopping 68.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 8th-biggest rate in football.As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Denver's unit has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.6 per game) this year.With a feeble 36.7% Adjusted Catch% (9th percentile) this year, Jalen Guyton ranks as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among WRs.
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