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Jaleel McLaughlin

Jaleel McLaughlin Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Jaleel McLaughlin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+380/-390).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -520 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -390.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Broncos may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup QB Jarrett Stidham.
  • The Broncos are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-focused team in the NFL in the red zone (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Denver Broncos.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Broncos grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Patriots defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • The projections expect Jaleel McLaughlin to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the goal line in this week's contest (27.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
  • Jaleel McLaughlin has been not been very involved his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Jaleel McLaughlin has notched a paltry -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 22nd percentile among running backs.
  • Jaleel McLaughlin's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 96.5% to 80.0%.

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