Jaleel McLaughlin Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Jaleel McLaughlin

RB · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2025

Updated Dec 7, 2025 9:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaleel McLaughlin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+440/-490).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +430 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +440.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Broncos O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Jaleel McLaughlin profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among running backs, completing a fantastic 93.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Broncos are an enormous 8-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.
Jaleel McLaughlin has been been lightly used his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile when it comes to RBs.
As it relates to air yards, Jaleel McLaughlin ranks in the lowly 2nd percentile among RBs since the start of last season, with just -6.0 per game.
This year, the formidable Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up a measly 0.08 passing touchdowns per game to opposing RBs: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.