Jaleel McLaughlin Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jaleel McLaughlin

NFL · Player Props

Jaleel McLaughlin

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaleel McLaughlin Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to run on 46.8% of their downs: the 6th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
With an outstanding record of 5.84 adjusted yards per carry (97th percentile), Jaleel McLaughlin ranks as one of the leading RBs in the league this year.
With an outstanding record of 3.77 yards after contact (93rd percentile), Jaleel McLaughlin rates as one of the powerful RBs in football this year.

Favors Under

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 126.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Denver Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jaleel McLaughlin has played on 18.9% of his offense's snaps this year, ranking him in the 25th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The opposing side have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 95.0 per game) vs. the Browns defense this year.

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