Jaleel McLaughlin Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jaleel McLaughlin

NFL · Player Props

Jaleel McLaughlin

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaleel McLaughlin Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to skew 1.5% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
With an impressive rate of 6.76 adjusted yards per carry (99th percentile), Jaleel McLaughlin places as one of the leading pure rushers in the league this year.
Jaleel McLaughlin grades out as one of the best RBs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a remarkable 4.30 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 98th percentile.
This year, the formidable Bills run defense has conceded a measly 4.94 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 30th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to run on 42.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.8 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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