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Jakobi Meyers Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-250).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -265 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -250.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jaguars to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate on the slate this week.The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.7 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.Opposing QBs have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense this year: 7th-most in football.When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Jacksonville Jaguars grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 51.8% rate of running the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the 8th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL in this regard has been the Jacksonville Jaguars.Jakobi Meyers, who has garnered 2.9% of his team's carries near the goal line this year (96th percentile), finds himself in the unique position (for a wide receiver) of being involved in the Jacksonville red zone run game.After accumulating 82.0 air yards per game last year, Jakobi Meyers has fallen off this year, currently boasting 63.0 per game.Jakobi Meyers's 53.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 61.2.Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league against the Broncos defense this year (65.4% Adjusted Completion%).
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