Jakobi Meyers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Jakobi Meyers

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills · Week 19, 2025

Updated Jan 11, 2026 5:22 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league (63.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).
In this game, Jakobi Meyers is expected by the projection model to finish in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.7 targets.
With an exceptional 69.5% Adjusted Catch Rate (76th percentile) this year, Jakobi Meyers places as one of the best possession receivers in football among wide receivers.
When it comes to safeties getting after the quarterback, Buffalo's unit has been lousy this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bills, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.3 per game) this year.
Jakobi Meyers's 52.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 61.2.
Jakobi Meyers's 4.1 adjusted receptions per game this year represents an impressive decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 5.7 mark.

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