Jakobi Meyers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Jakobi Meyers

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2025

Updated Jan 4, 2026 11:47 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -161 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars offensive scheme to lean 2.7% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Liam Coen now calling the plays.
The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a staggering 59.4 per game on average).
The predictive model expects Jakobi Meyers to accrue 7.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
The Titans pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.4%) vs. wideouts this year (71.4%).
The Tennessee cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a massive 12.5-point favorite in this game.
The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to chug along at the 11th-most sluggish tempo on the slate this week, averaging 26.81 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Titans, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.8 per game) this year.

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