Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jakobi Meyers

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 11:36 PM EST

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-279).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -272 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -279.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the goal line this week (18.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Jakobi Meyers has accumulated many more air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (71.0 per game).
Jakobi Meyers's 66.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 55.5.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.
The Chicago Bears defense has yielded the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 0.33 per game this year.

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