Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+229/-360).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +249 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +229.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (71.4%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.4%).
The Detroit Lions cornerbacks rank as the worst collection of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.
The Detroit Lions defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.