Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jakobi Meyers

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 1, 2022 1:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+305/-548).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +339 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +305.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Jakobi Meyers has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 81st percentile among WRs.
Jakobi Meyers has notched a monstrous 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
Jakobi Meyers's 57.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 89th percentile for wideouts.
The Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 8th-most passing TDs in the NFL to WRs: 1.10 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (60.8%).
The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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