My Account Log Out
 
 
Jake Tonges

Jake Tonges Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Jake Tonges Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+495/-560).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +475 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +495.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers will be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the projections to run 65.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
  • While Jake Tonges has garnered 2.9% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in San Francisco's offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 13.2%.
  • Jake Tonges ranks as one of the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, catching an outstanding 87.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 55.5% of their plays: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • Right now, the 10th-most run-focused team in the league in the red zone (45.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.
  • When it comes to air yards, Jake Tonges grades out in just the 11th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling just 1.0 per game.
  • Jake Tonges's 3.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) grades out among the worst in the league: 17th percentile for tight ends.
  • The Cardinals defense has yielded the fewest touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.11 per game since the start of last season.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™