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Jake Tonges

Jake Tonges Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Jake Tonges Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+900/-2250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2250.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
  • After totaling 0.0 air yards per game last year, Jake Tonges has produced significantly more this year, currently boasting 16.0 per game.
  • Jake Tonges's 17.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 0.0.
  • With an excellent 79.6% Adjusted Completion Rate (78th percentile) this year, Jake Tonges ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among tight ends.
  • Jake Tonges grades out in the 94th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a remarkable 0.50 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the San Francisco 49ers offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.78 seconds per snap.
  • The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • While Jake Tonges has earned 7.5% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much less involved in San Francisco's offense near the goal line in this week's game at 1.0%.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year (67.2% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Seahawks safeties grade out as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

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